The Czechosolovakian Solution
With a world in the grip of independence fever, and central governments struggling to control their minority populations, there is only one clear solution…
Chechnya , 1993. A minor province of Russia . Although it has long been understood that the Caucasus Mountains region of the world was a violence hotspot waiting to happen, Chechnya , like many of the other autonomous regions nearby, was enjoying a mild economic resurgence following the break up of the Soviet Union . Investors both domestic and foreign were beginning to investigate the prospects of oil in the Caspian Sea and the war further south between Azerbaijan and Armenia made the South Caucasus too high a risk.
In the calm before the storm, it looked as though the North Caucasus was going to be the new success story.
Then, it began to fall apart. In 1994 Chechnya , like many small states and minority populations across the world, declared independence and announced it was separating from the mother state of Russia . It was time to go it alone.
On the surface, the future actually looked quite bright for such a small state. With the Caspian Sea so close and plans already laid for a major oil pipeline through the territory to the Ukraine and onward to the Black Sea, Chechnya seemed to have good reasons to be optimistic. It lasted for a few years.
But Russia could not hold back for long. As more and more autonomous republics in the former Soviet state made rumblings towards independence, Moscow needed to make an example of one of them. Its eyes fell on Chechnya.
We know the rest of this story. The tanks rolled in, and a war began which continues in various forms to this day without any hope of a peace deal being reached. Terrorists and foreign fighters began to enter the fray and regular attacks on Russian civilian targets such as theatres and schools keep grabbing the headlines. What’s more, the conflict is spreading – to neighbouring countries and provinces such as Georgia , Dagestan , Ingushetia and North and South Ossetia.
Result? Chechnya and the North Caucasus is now one of the most impoverished regions on the planet with no hope of recovery in the near future, Russia ’s slow economic recovery is constantly hampered by flagging business confidence and the Russian people live in fear of yet another terrorist strike.
Moscow , in its relentless effort to suppress the Chechen independence spirit, is equally relentless in telling us that it must be this way. Not one acre of Russian land must be yielded, not one compromise must be allowed.
The pattern is repeated all over the world. Look at Ethiopia and Eritrea . A five year war over some hundred square miles of land left both nations deeper in poverty than they ever were before Eritrean independence in 1993. Again, in the Philippines , or in Aceh , Indonesia . And no one needs to point out the drastic economic and social collapse (suffered by both sides) during and after the war in Bosnia as Yugoslavia tore itself apart.
But, you know, it needn’t be this way at all. There is another way, and right now, it seems it is the only way forward when presented with a minority group who no longer want to stay with the central government.
Let us go to Prague , and the Velvet Revolution of 1989. Freedom from communism gave the country of Czechoslovakia – made up of two ethnic groups: majority Czechs and minority Slovaks – a rise in optimism, but given the Chechnyan example, the future secretly looked bleak.
Almost immediately, the Slovaks started on the road towards independence.
But strange to say, there was no war, there was no economic collapse. The then Czechoslovakian president Vaclav Havel made clear his position on the matter: “The Slovaks are our brothers and sisters, but we must allow them to go their own way.” And in 1993, they did. Peacefully, with the full approval of the no-longer-central government in Prague.
The new nation of Slovakia with its capital in the city of Bratislava was formed, and the now reduced Czechoslovakia became the Czech Republic.
Result? Both the newly formed Czech Republic and Slovakia experienced an upsurge in their economies, business confidence rose, social pride in their own and each other’s countries increased among both Czechs and Slovaks, and the final icing on the cake: the European Union fast tracked both nations towards entrance into this economic powerhouse. Both finally entered in 2004.
This, then, is the Czechoslovakian Solution. Not only is it something wonderful that all Czechs and Slovaks have a right to be proud of, it is also one that should be applied all over the world to other states in similar situations:
“The Chechnyans are our brothers and sisters, but we must allow them to go their own way…”
The alternative is war, poverty for both sides, and a business stigma that can last for decades. In other words, generalised misery.
“We, the Indonesian government, must allow the Acehnese the choice of self-determination…”
Let them stand or fall on their own: the Czechoslovakian case has shown us that central government fears of national disintegration are unfounded so long as liberty is freely given.
“While we regret the loss of our Bosnian territories, we wish them well and give them our support…”
When independence fever strikes, the only way to ensure peace and prosperity is to wish them luck, and let them go.
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